Atiku Abubakar’s political journey will go down in history as that of a man who mastered the art of winning party primaries, yet never succeeded in clinching the ultimate prize “the presidency”. 

His repeated victories in the PDP presidential primaries are easily explained: it’s a controlled environment, limited in scope, where influence, patronage, and the strategic use of money can shape outcomes. But the general election is a different battlefield that lies beyond his reach, for the ordinary Nigerian, whose vote he cannot buy, sees no future under his leadership. His political philosophy has always leaned toward elite capitalism, offering little to nothing for the common man.

Atiku is politically a man staggering toward irrelevance, and he knows it. Even the governor of his own state, a PDP member, has distanced himself from him and all indications suggest that it won’t be long before he follows the path of his Delta State counterpart and defects to the APC.

This recent visit to former President Muhammadu Buhari in Kaduna was telling. Aside from Senator Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, there was no politically relevant figure accompanying him. And Tambuwal’s loyalty is no secret, it’s tied more to Sokoto’s local political arithmetic than any national conviction. He’s likely hedging his bets in case the PDP, in a final act of desperation, ditches Atiku and anoints him instead. After all, the party’s leadership has all but admitted that Atiku has failed and cannot deliver. And let’s not forget, Tambuwal has a history. Everyone remembers how Asiwaju Bola Tinubu helped him rise to become Speaker of the House of Representatives, only for him to turn around and fight him. So imagine what he’ll do to someone like Atiku, who never lifted a finger to help him.

Let’s take a moment to look at Atiku’s political predicament. This is a man who has repeatedly fought the same PDP he now claims loyalty to. He has, time and again, aligned himself with its adversaries when his ambitions weren’t met, only to crawl back once he’s shut out elsewhere. He has done this not once, but twice. Atiku has never nurtured any political figure with the vision of building Nigeria’s future, it has always been about him, and him alone. This is the stark difference between him and President Bola Tinubu.

During the 2015 merger that gave birth to the APC, Atiku defected from the PDP simply because he realized he wouldn’t get the presidential ticket. He aligned himself with the opposition, hoping to be crowned flagbearer, but lost to Buhari. And once defeated, he returned to the PDP, where he eventually lost even the few political strongholds he once had including his running mates.

Today, Atiku is a man isolated. Even key figures who helped shape the PDP like Gen. Aliyu Gusau, Mu’azu Babangida Aliyu, and Sule Lamido have distanced themselves from his desperate overtures. His rumored coalition with the likes of El-Rufai has been widely rejected. These leaders have made it clear that such an alliance would not be about Nigeria’s progress, but purely a selfish arrangement tailored to revive Atiku’s fading ambition.

And even El-Rufai, who has now become the loudest whistle in the room, lacks the support of any significant political figure from his home state of Kaduna. This so-called coalition is nothing but a gathering of political has-beens and disgruntled losers who see power not as a means to serve the people, but as an opportunity to reclaim lost prestige.

Many career politicians trapped in indecision and old loyalties who once surrounded Atiku have since abandoned the sinking ship. Even his 2023 running mate is nowhere near his corner, he recently joined the APC. Those he once counted on to rally behind him in exchange for cash have quietly distanced themselves. The few who remain are not driven by ideology or patriotism, but by hope, hope that another election cycle might bring personal gain. These are the ones tirelessly peddling propaganda, mixing lies with half-truths, and defending Atiku while attacking the present administration with outdated narratives.

Today, you’ll struggle to find any serious political figure, the ones whose legacy is rooted in genuine patriotism and a desire to see Nigeria thrive standing by Atiku. As I’ve said before, the end of Atiku’s political venture is no longer a prediction, it is a reality. If he chooses to remain in the PDP, repeated failure awaits him. And should he proceed with this desperate coalition with El-Rufai and the rest, the masses will only further reject him. That kind of alliance exposes everything: a group of men who never cared for the Nigerian people and who, at best, only care about returning to relevance through any means necessary.

The people are watching. History will record that Atiku’s political fall was not caused by his opponents but by his own insatiable ambition and refusal to serve any interest but his own.

Samba writes from Abuja